Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political-risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"Leaving Bangladesh? Not an Easy Choice for Brands"
Jonathan Fahey and Anne D'Innocenzio, Associated Press
The recent tragedy in Bangladesh is a reason for multinationals to take their business elsewhere. The average hourly wage of 24 cents in Bangladesh (compared to $0.45 in Cambodia, $0.52 in Pakistan, $0.53 in Vietnam, or $1.26 in China) may prove sufficient reason to stay.

"Making a hash of finding the cash"
Economist

Why is it so hard to recover assets from former leaders who pilfered their countries while in power?

"Pakistan's next prime minister wants to end decades-old feud with India"
Jon Boone, Jason Burke, and Emma Graham-Harrison, Guardian
Last weekend, Nawaz Sharif became set to be prime minister in a resounding victory that was the first peaceful transfer of power from one civilian government to another in Pakistan's 66-year history. Do Sharif's decisive win and conservative credentials allow him to promote greater economic collaboration with India?

"Erdogan's Great Gamble"
John Hannah, Foreign Policy
Is a watershed agreement with Turkey's Kurds the next big step for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Or will a political challenge as old as the Turkish state itself prove too difficult to meet?

"The Ayatollah's Game Plan"
Mohsen Milani, Foreign Affairs
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may not be able to simply choose Iran's next president -- but he can influence the outcome of the upcoming presidential election in many ways.

Must-view
"The Rescue of Jessica Buchanan"
60 Minutes

This 15-minute TV segment tells the story of Jessica Buchanan's abduction in Somalia and eventual rescue by a Navy SEAL team.

Must-play
Do you have an interest in geography -- or procrastination? Via Google Maps, Geoguessr drops you at a random point in the world; you guess your location based on your surroundings and get points for proximity.

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"U.S. Blames China's Military Directly for Cyberattacks"
David E. Sanger, New York Times
For the first time, Barack Obama's administration explicitly accused China's military of responsibility for cyberattacks on U.S. government computer systems. By some estimates, 90 percent of the cyber-espionage in the United States originates in China.

"Russia's Energy Bully Takes a Fall"
Alexandros Petersen, Foreign Policy
Is Russia's coercive use of natural gas exports to bully its neighbors finally unraveling? Will cheaper gas worldwide exacerbate Russia's "reverse dependence" on European markets?

"Japan's leading exporters say the weak yen is helping them, to a point"
Gwynn Guilford, Quartz
Is Abenomics for real? It certainly had an impact on many exporters' first-quarter bottom line. The weaker yen accounted for 43.2 billion yen of Nissan's 174.4 billion yen operating profit (up almost 50 percent from the same period last year).

"In China, Power Is Arrogant"
Yu Hua, New York Times
In 2001, hospital officials in Shenzhen stipulated that nurses should "show precisely eight teeth when smiling." This piece addresses the "wacky and arbitrary nature" of many Chinese regulations.

"This Is The World's First Entirely 3D-Printed Gun"
Andy Greenberg, Forbes
What happens when rapidly evolving technologies meet an age-old political debate? Twenty-five-year-old Cody Wilson is utilizing 3-D printers to print guns -- and is sharing the blueprints in downloadable open-source format on his website in a bid to undermine gun control efforts. Here is a disturbing documentary from Vice on the process and its implications.

EXPLORE:CHINA, JAPAN, RUSSIA

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"Lebanon squanders its finest human assets"

David Gardner, Financial Times

Lebanon is losing talent ... and electricity. Last year, the country got an average of 11.4 hours of electricity per day.

"Remote Control: Our Drone Delusion"

Steve Coll, The New Yorker

Bush oversaw 48 drone strikes in Pakistan while in office. Since 2009, Obama has authorized more than 300.

"China's Drone Program Appears to Be Moving Into Overdrive"

Christopher Bodeen, Huffington Post

"If the U.S. can do it, so can we." China may trail the U.S. in drone technology, but it's narrowing the gap.

Longer reads

"The End of the Gandhis"

James Traub, Foreign Policy

The Gandhis are the paradox of Indian politics: They are both the deliverers of democracy and the nepotistic exception to the rule.

Weekly bonus

"Disruptions: Brain Computer Interfaces Inch Closer to Mainstream"

Nick Bilton, New York Times

Soon we might interact with smartphones with our minds -- because fingers are just too clumsy.

"14 Hairless Cats That Look Like Vladimir Putin"

Elizabeth F. Ralph, Foreign Policy

The headline says it all. Enjoy.

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections via  @EurasiaGroup or @IanBremmer.

Must-reads

"An ounce of prevention"

The Economist

Is the world adequately prepared for a global pandemic? With the first H7N9 bird flu case surfacing outside of mainland China this week, we may find out sooner than we'd like.

"Economic Development Lessons From All Corners"

Peter Blair Henry, Newsweek

Where have we seen countries flout the traditional rules of economic growth? From 1965 to 1990, South Korea ran trade deficits yet grew by 7.1 percent per year -- three times faster than the United States after World War II.

"A Rise in Wealth for the Wealthy; Declines for the Lower 93%"

Richard Fry and Paul Taylor, Pew Research

Is "7-percenters" the new buzzword? From 2009 to 2011, the upper 7 percent of households' aggregate share of total U.S. household wealth rose from 56 to 63 percent. For most Americans, the recent economic recovery hasn't been a resurgence at all.

"The deficit is falling fast. Can Washington accept victory?"

Neil Irwin, Wonkblog, The Washington Post

"Grand bargain" deficit reduction in Washington is no longer as urgent. In 2009, the budget deficit was 10 percent of GDP. Over the first three months of this year, Goldman Sachs pegs it at 4.5 percent -- and predicts it will fall below 3 percent by fiscal year 2015. 

Longer reads

"What If We Never Run Out of Oil?"

Charles C. Mann, The Atlantic

What if there is no peak oil? Is that necessarily a good thing? This essay is worth reading as much for its anecdotes, factoids, and historical perspective as for its underlying arguments. 

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"Iceland and China Enter a Free Trade Agreement"

David Jolly, New York Times

China just inked its first ever Free Trade Agreement with a European country. But with a GDP that's less than 1/500th of China's, Iceland seems like an odd choice-what can it offer in return? The answer might lie up north.

"Alexei Navalny's Day in Court: Putin's Nemesis Faces the State's Legal Wrath"

Joshua Yaffa, Foreign Affairs

Russian blogger/activist Alexei Navalny has worked his way into the opposition's spotlight -- and the Kremlin's crosshairs. As the trial begins, the verdict is all but certain: over the past two years, the presiding judge has issued 130 convictions and no acquittals.

"After Apple, China Directs Its Ire at Microsoft"

Sterling Wong, Minyanville.com

Is China's government-sanctioned anti-Apple campaign moving on to Microsoft? This could be an early warning.

"America's problem is not political gridlock"

Lawrence Summers, Financial Times

Larry Summers asks, is political gridlock in Washington really a structural obstacle to American economic growth and improvement?

"Megacities and the Density Delusion: Why More People Doesn't Equal More Wealth"

Joel Kotkin, NewGeography.com

According to some theorists, the denser a city, the more economically productive it will be. But is this really the case? Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, is the densest megacity (defined as a city of 10 million or more) in the world, with 115,000 people per square mile. And with a GDP per capita of $3,100, it's the poorest too.

"Maduro's pyrrhic victory"

The Economist

Why will Maduro's recent razor-thin victory in the Venezuelan presidential election prove destabilizing for the country?

Bonus...

"Two-Headed Pig Born in Chinese Village"

Sky News

After 16,000 pig corpses were pulled out of polluted Chinese rivers, we thought we'd seen it all. But China's latest pig story deserves...a double-take.

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"Baby milk rationing: Chinese fears spark global restrictions"

Celia Hatton, BBC News

What's worse than glow-in-the-dark pork? The recent craze in subpar Chinese product safety standards is all about baby milk formula. 

"Murder mysteries: Official figures showing a sharp drop in China's murder rate are misleading"

The Economist

According to official statistics, the murder rate in China surged from 10,000 in 1981 to 28,000 in 2000 ... and has since dropped steadily to 12,000. Is that credible?

"The global farm grab is on"

Michael Kugelman, CNN

Seven of the countries that were ranked most food insecure in the 2012 Global Hunger Index have given up 10 percent or more of their total agricultural area. Some are calling the push to buy arable land in developing countries a new wave of colonialism. 

"Closing the Door on Hackers"

Marc Maiffret, New York Times

The debate surrounding cyber challenges has reached a fever pitch. But the blame doesn't lie solely with aggressive perpetrators or unprepared victims: The infrastructure and software itself is insecure and prone to manipulation. 

Bonus pieces

"Bitcoin Trading Boom is Bittersweet For Long-Time Traders, Who Fear Volatility Will Tarnish Currency"

Eleazar David Melendez, Huffington Post

What is this bitcoin phenomenon all about? This piece gives a good overview of the rise -- and recent fall -- in the virtual currency's fortunes. 

"These Three Countries Are Winning the ‘Game of Thrones'"

Katy Byron, CNBC

Which real-world countries are the geopolitical winners behind the Game of Thrones television show?  

EXPLORE:CHINA

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"Is This a Pandemic Being Born?"

Laurie Garrett, Foreign Policy

In the past few weeks in China, we've seen over 15,000 dead animals pulled out of China's polluted rivers, with vast distances between discoveries. Recently, three people have contracted a virus strain that previously did not affect humans. Explanations from government officials have been as murky as the polluted water itself. This piece doesn't claim that we can draw a firm connection between these events ... but it argues that we certainly cannot rule it out.

"Jobs Alone Do Not Explain the Importance of Manufacturing"

Scott Andes and Mark Muro, Brookings

The U.S. manufacturing sector makes up just 11 percent of the American economy -- but it represents about 60 percent of U.S. exports and 68 percent of private sector research and development. Does the rigid focus on manufacturing's job creating capabilities tell the whole story?

"Inside the cult of Kim"

The Economist

As provocations from the North Korean regime make international headlines, what is life like on the ground in Pyongyang?

"Arming for Virtual Battle: The Dangerous New Rules of Cyberwar"

Thomas Darnstaedt, Marcel Rosenbach and Gregor Peter Schmitz, Spiegel

It looks like someone's hiring: U.S. Cyber Command at the Pentagon did not exist four years ago. Today it has 900 employees. In the next few years, that number is expected to rise to 4,900.

"Hagel: U.S. ‘has grown weary of war and skeptical of foreign engagements'"

Jorge Benitez, Atlantic Council

In this collection of excerpts from Chuck Hagel's speech at the National Defense University on April 3 (full transcript here), Hagel addresses key questions: What is America's role abroad as it becomes more hesitant to engage in global affairs? How has the American military -- and the challenges it faces -- evolved since 9/11?

Posted By Ian Bremmer

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie - presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

Must-reads

"Mexico Makes It: A Transformed Society, Economy, and Government"
Shannon K. O'Neil, Foreign Affairs

There are plenty of underappreciated bright spots in Mexico. This piece gives a compelling recent economic history of the country and spells out the risks and opportunities Mexico faces today.

"Is Kurdistan the Taiwan of the Middle East?"
Kevin Sullivan, RealClearWorld

Is Kurdistan a rare winner in an ever-turbulent Middle East?

"Life After Oil and Gas"
Elisabeth Rosenthal, New York Times

How does energy use differ around the world? A staggering fact: New York State's 19.5 million residents consume as much energy as the 800 million residents in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa).

"The Middle Kingdom's Problem with Religion"
Simon Scott Plummer, Standpoint

In 2011, there were an estimated 67 million Chinese Christians and rising. Some predict that in a few decades, Chinese Christians could outnumber those in the US (there are currently 170 million and falling). How will China's religion demographics affect its development?

China-Apple-Weibo reads:

"Did China Just Declare War on Apple? Sure Looks Like It"
Gordon Chang, Forbes

"Apple in China: Unparalleled arrogance, undisclosed agenda"
The Economist

"Weibo: The Real People's Daily"
Jonathan Dehart, The Diplomat

It seems like an anti-Apple campaign is brewing in China-but who is behind it? What's the motive? Apple CEO Tim Cook's January prediction that China will become the company's largest market looks inauspicious in hindsight. One thing is for sure: social media is exploding in China and Weibo is upending the calculus of information flow and control.

The Call, from Ian Bremmer, uses cutting-edge political science to predict the political future -- and how it will shape the global economy.

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