Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

The theme of this week's must-reads is the US domestic picture -- whether it's immigration, the federal deficit, gay marriage, or the 2016 presidential election.

The US domestic picture

"Is it too early for 2016 polls?"

Micah Cohen, FiveThirtyEight blog, New York Times

As soon as the 2012 presidential election wrapped up, some pollsters turned their attention to 2016. Too soon? Perhaps not.

"Own goal: America's immigration rules are the opposite of what it needs"

The Economist

Today there are just 140,000 green cards per year that are tied to employment and investment. That's the same quota as in 1990, even though the U.S. population has grown dramatically since. In 2011, just 6% of all green cards were handed out "for hard-nosed economic reasons." 

"Politicians and gay marriage: profiles in calculation"

Alexander Burns, Maggie Haberman, and John F. Harris, Politico

Will March 2013 be remembered as the month when the political calculus on the issue of gay marriage fundamentally shifted? What's the underlying cause of the shift? What does it mean for policy -- and for politicians -- going forward? 

"The politics of misperception"

Garance Franke-Ruta, The Atlantic

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the U.S. is on track for the smallest federal budget deficit since 2009. But at 5.3 percent of GDP, the 2013 deficit would still be larger than in all but one year between 1947 and 2008. This article highlights three aspects of the U.S. financial picture that the American public routinely misunderstands.

A BRICS bonus

"BRICS development bank may take years"

Anita Powell, Voice of America

Can a BRICS development bank work? Or are the interests and priorities of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa simply too divergent?

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections via @EurasiaGroup or @IanBremmer.

Must-Reads 

"The Philippines and Malaysia: Intrusion confusion"

The Economist

How does "a quaint historical pageant played out with live ammunition" erupt into what could become a full-fledged guerilla war?

"The Global Swarm"

By P.W. Singer, Foreign Policy

So much for the U.S.'s perceived monopoly on drones. There are at least 75 countries using unmanned aircraft in their militaries. As the technology spreads into more hands and more sectors, what impact will that have?

"Brazil stunned as Argentina wins the ‘Cup'"

By Joe Leahy, Financial Times

This week, Brazilians were confusing the World Cup and the Holy Grail. Losing out to Argentina in the papal selection was painful, but it was a victory of sorts: Brazil is celebrating the first-ever pope from Latin America, a region that is home to 40 percent of the world's Catholics. 

"Insight: Mugabe takes on Zimbabwe's Generation X"

By Cris Chinaka, Reuters

What can we expect in Zimbabwe's upcoming elections? The population's median age is 33 years old -- more than half of Zimbabweans were born after independence in 1980. How will an increasingly youthful electorate impact the aspirations of an aging mainstay like 89-year-old president Robert Mugabe?

"China hacker's angst opens a window onto cyber-espionage"

By Barbara Demick, Los Angeles Times

It turns out the lifestyle of a Chinese hacker isn't all it's cracked up to be. This rare glimpse at the day-to-day life of a hacker in the Chinese army is fascinating.

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @ianbremmer.

The theme of this week's must-reads is number crunching -- whether it's budgets in China and Iran, record-long filibusters in the US senate, or how much the quality of life has improved in Africa over the last decade. Get out your calculators. Here goes.

Crunching the numbers

"Is fracking a ‘bridge' to a clean-energy future? Ernest Moniz thinks so."

By Brad Plumer, Wonkblog, The Washington Post

In terms of halting climate change, natural gas has been dubbed a "bridge fuel" for its growing role in the energy mix as the world transitions to renewable energy. But just how far into the future can this bridge reach?  

"China is spending more on policing its own people than on its defense budget"

By Lily Kuo, Quartz

China announced a 10.7 percent increase in its defense budget for the coming year. But it still spends more on "public security," underscoring Beijing's real focus. 

"The Curious Case of China's GDP Figures"

By Eve Cary, The Diplomat

China's reported 2012 GDP: 51.9 trillion yuan. The reported GDP of its 31 provinces: 57.6 trillion yuan. The numbers don't add up. Li Keqiang's 2007 admission that GDP statistics are "man-made" became public via a Wikileaks cable in 2010.  

"Ahmadinejad's Budget is About Iran's Elections"

By Mohammad Ali Shabani, Al-Monitor

Ahmadinjead's proposed budget has some eye-openers. An 82 percent increase in the executive branch's operating budget. Significant cuts for councils run by his rivals, such as Hasemi Rafsanjani. And how does it all add up? Last year the oil price per barrel that balanced the budget was $81.50. This year it's $85. The proposed budget? $95. 

"A hopeful continent"

The Economist

Correspondent Oliver August outlines how African lives have tangibly improved over the past decade. Real income per person is up more than 30 percent, while malaria deaths in some of the worst-affected countries are down 30 percent -- and HIV infections are down as much as 74 percent. 

"Longest filibusters in history"

By Bobby Cervantes, Politico

On Wednesday, Rand Paul filibustered the nomination of John Brennan as CIA director for nearly 13 hours. How does that rank compared to the all-time longest talking filibusters in the U.S. Senate?

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections @EurasiaGroup or @IanBremmer.

Must-Reads

"How Israel beat the drought"

David Horowitz, The Times of Israel

Israel's quantity of natural water per capita is the lowest in its entire region. But it seems Israel's water crisis may be a thing of the past. Why? More than 80 percent of Israel's purified sewage is reused for agriculture. The next best in the OECD? Spain, at 18 percent.

"Germany relaxes immigration rules to attract skilled labour"

Stephen Brown and Holger Hansen, Reuters

Yes, Spain's unemployment rate is over 26 percent. But elsewhere in the Eurozone, it's a different story. Germany's unemployment rate is at its lowest since reunification in 1990 -- and Berlin is actively recruiting certain skilled labor.

"Send in the clowns"

The Economist

In Italian elections this week, voters set a post-war record ... for lowest turnout.

"Putin's Ph.D: Can a Plagiarism Probe Upend Russian Politics?"

Simon Shuster, TIME

In a recent study, a group of academics analyzed a random sampling of 25 dissertations from the history department of Moscow Pedagogical State University. They found that all but one had been "at least 50 percent plagiarized." So how high up the ranks does plagiarism go? Perhaps more to the point, how high up the ranks will Medvedev's campaign to weed out plagiarism be permitted to go?

Cybersecurity

"Cybersecurity and China"

Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Brookings

This piece takes a realistic approach to highlighting potential common ground on cybersecurity between the United States and China.

"The New Westphalian Web"

Katherine Maher, Foreign Policy

Have you ever thought of the internet as unclaimed territory, awaiting a basic framework for division of sovereignty? You're not the only one -- a lot of nations have, too.

By Risa Grais-Targow

Beginning what he says will be his final five-year term as Cuba's president, Raul Castro surprised Cuba observers this week by appointing Miguel Diaz-Canel as first vice-president. At 52, Diaz-Canel is a spring chicken compared to Jose Ramon Machado Ventura, his 82-year old predecessor, and it appears generational change within the leadership might finally be on the agenda. Though Raul Castro, 81, appears in good health, Diaz-Canel would automatically assume the presidency if Castro is forced to step aside before 2018.

What does all this mean for policy? In the near-term, probably not much. Under Raul's leadership, the government has embarked on an incremental path toward economic liberalization while keeping a tight lid on political reform, and that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Diaz-Canel seems to have been selected precisely because he is both a trusted Communist Party loyalist and a proven manager who can balance the delicate process of gradual economic opening with the need to work closely with the still-influential first generation of revolutionaries within Cuba's politburo. Diaz-Canel, a former education minister and an engineer by training, has slowly worked his way through the party ranks. He served two years in the military and reportedly maintains close relations with top brass. He is not particularly charismatic, but, then again, neither is the man he's now in line to replace, who assumed power after older brother Fidel relinquished the reins in 2006. 

The appointment suggests the Castro regime knows it must finally address the issue of succession. Raul has repeatedly called for a "rejuvenation" of Cuba's Communist Party but seems to have struggled to find an appropriate mix of loyalty and reformist credentials, particularly within the generation born after the 1959 revolution.

Still, there is no guarantee that Diaz-Canel will be Cuba's next leader. Other would-be heirs -- most notably Carlos Lage and Felipe Perez Roque -- have been groomed for succession in the past only to fall from grace after demonstrating an excess of personal ambition or clashing with Raul and Fidel. Moreover, though Diaz-Canel has the legitimacy that comes with Raul's backing, his last name is not Castro, and any transition will likely be challenging, particularly given Cuba's deep economic troubles, tensions within the ruling party, and intense pressure from the international community to implement political reforms. 

Still, promoting Diaz-Canel suggests that despite the Castro brothers' seeming immortality, the regime is truly committed to "updating the model" to ensure the system they built continues after Raul and 86-year old Fidel are gone. This also includes continuing economic reforms aimed at slowly and carefully expanding the size of the private sector and reducing state payrolls.

Whether these reforms can keep the regime in power beyond the Castros, however, remains to be seen.  

Risa Grais-Targow is an analyst in Eurasia Group’s Latin America practice. 

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections @EurasiaGroup or @IanBremmer.

Must-Reads

"China denies it is world's biggest trader despite data showing it passed US last year"
By Associated Press, The Washington Post

With great trading comes great responsibility. For China, the bragging rights of being the world's #1 trader don't offset the perceived political obligations that come with it. What will this mean when China becomes the largest economy in the world overall?

"They Actually Plan to Mine Asteroids. Here's How"
By Daniel Bukszpan, CNBC

The space market is skyrocketing. First, take the black market that arose in the wake of the meteor striking Russia last week -- even space debris is subject to the corruption and supply/demand forces at play in Russia. This article outlines how Planetary Resources, Inc. aims to mine asteroids that travel close to Earth. Says the CEO, "a single 500-meter LL chondrite has more platinum on it than has been mined in the history of humanity." 

"Globalising giving"
The Economist

Of the 1,223 billionaires in 2012, 102 have signed the Gates-Buffett pledge to donate half of their total worth over the course of their lives. Finding emerging market billionaires who'll contribute has proven a lot more challenging: one Indian (out of 48) and no Chinese (out of 95) have signed on thus far.

"No, Greenland does not belong to China"
By Martin Breum and Jorgen Chemnitz, The New York Times

How has Greenland's relationship with Denmark opened the door to foreign investment? What role will China play in the country -- and by extension, the Arctic? Can Greenland, with a population of 57,000, handle the potential influx of 3,000 Chinese workers? 

Longer Reads

"The Extraordinary Science of Addictive Junk Food"
By Michael Moss, The New York Times Magazine

"Today, one in three adults is considered clinically obese, along with one in five kids." Read this piece for the science -- and the politics-behind junk food's overwhelming success.

"Bitter Pill: Why Medical Bills Are Killing Us"
By Steven Brill, TIME

In the Obamacare debate, the main question has been, 'Who pays?' Through meticulous research and reporting, this piece takes a step back and provides answers to a more fundamental concern: 'Why must anybody pay this much in the first place?'

By Risa Grais-Targow

With Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez gravely ill and the Castro brothers in their twilight years, debate has begun to focus on the future of Chavez's brand of leftist politics in Latin America. There is widespread speculation as to which leader might assume Chavez's role in the region, even though his influence has arguably been on the decline. Among the possibilities bandied about is Ecuador's President Rafael Correa. Correa easily won a third term in the Feb. 17 elections, beating his closest opponent, Guillermo Lasso, by more than 30 percentage points. Correa also expanded his base of support in the National Assembly, where his Alianza Pais looks likely to achieve an absolute majority. Correa, like Bolivia's Evo Morales and Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega, owes much to Chavez, who served as a model for socialist policies, anti-imperialist rhetoric, and doled out hundreds of millions of dollars to his regional allies. While Correa may aspire to use his strong mandate to assume leadership of the Chavez-created Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas, his ability to do so will be limited.

First and foremost, Correa simply lacks the resources. Ecuador is a relatively small country (its GDP is about 20 percent of Venezuela's), and while it is a major oil producer, it does not boast the quantity of oil that can sustain Chavez-like regional "petro-diplomacy" and aid programs. Moreover, in the likely event that Chavez's chosen successor, Vice President Nicolas Maduro, wins a new election, there is no evidence to suggest that he doesn't want to fill Chavez's regional leadership role himself. So far, Maduro's actions suggest that he will represent policy continuity. He is close with the Cuban regime and has imitated Chavez's playbook thus far, including cracking down on the private sector and suggesting that foreign agents were planning an assassination attempt against him.    

That doesn't mean that Correa won't try. He boasts much of Chavez's charisma, and has taken every opportunity to vault himself, and Ecuador, onto the international stage, typically at the expense of US policy interests. This has been particularly true since Chavez first became ill in June 2011. Correa boycotted last year's Summit of the Americas in protest of Cuba's absence, and more recently made headlines by granting Julian Assange political asylum. While Venezuela grapples with its internal transition challenges, rather than its regional agenda, Correa could heighten his anti-imperialist rhetoric. Regardless, however, Correa's decisive victory-along with the endurance of Morales in Bolivia, Ortega in Nicaragua, and more center -- left governments in Peru and Brazil -- suggests that the left in Latin America has staying power, with or without Chavez.

Risa Grais-Targow is an associate in Eurasia Group's Latin America practice.

Eurasia Group's weekly selection of essential reading for the political risk junkie -- presented in no particular order. As always, feel free to give us your feedback or selections by tweeting at us via @EurasiaGroup or @IanBremmer.

Must-Reads

"New Rove Group Could Backfire on G.O.P."

By Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight blog, New York Times

Nate Silver puts data to good use, analyzing the power of fundraising (or lack thereof) in Republican Senate primary races.

"Nigeria's Cardinal Francis Arinze: the next Pope?"

By Fraser Nelson, The Spectator

Two things that wouldn't ordinarily mix: the Pope... and Vegas odds.

"How to avert Armageddon"

The Economist

The asteroid that hit Russia on February 15 was quite a sight. If you're curious about strategies to defend against future collisions, this is the article for you.

Longer Reads

"A Middle-Class Paradise in Palestine?"

By Armin Rosen, The Atlantic

The planned city of Rawabi in the West Bank is a unique experiment -- a "Palestinian-directed private sector project, with support from both Israeli businesses and a major Arab government." Could it be the new way forward? 

"A Chinese Hacker's Identity Unmasked"

By Dune Lawrence and Michael Riley, Bloomberg Businessweek

To catch a cyber-thief: This piece details how the director of malware research at Dell SecureWorks used a notorious Chinese hacker's cyber-activities to reverse-engineer his real-world identity.