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Britain
Dispatch from the G20: Near-term promise and longer-term trouble

by Ian Bremmer
The growing
vulnerabilities of emerging markets to social upheaval and state failure as a
result of the financial crisis is probably the most significant risk the world
will face this year. That's why last week's G20 decision to
significantly expand funding for the International Monetary Fund was so
important -- and part of why the meeting itself was successful. This success is
especially obvious once we accept the limits of what this forum can really
accomplish. An urgent call for help was answered, but there was never any real
chance that leaders would use this meeting to remake the international
financial and economic order in a way that genuinely reflects the shift of
recent years in the global balance of political and economic power.
But the seeds have been planted for longer-term problems. Chinese President Hu
Jintao said very little during the event but was given an enormous level of
respect by the other G20 participants and the media. This reflects the reality
that many are now ready to accept China as a superpower. For the near term,
this change will prove useful, because China has the money to help fund
existing international financial institutions shepherd vulnerable countries
through their domestic economic problems. But longer-term, it may become a
problem, because China isn't fully ready to play this role and because China's
leaders have fundamental disagreements with the leaders of other powerful
states on how the global economic system should be governed.
Looking ahead, the broader promise of a G20 remaking the international order
for long-term sustainability remains unrealistic. Reimagining the
architecture of any multinational effort -- not just of financial institutions but
of the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the composition of the United Nations
Security Council, efforts to stop the international flow of illegal drugs,
agreement on a single definition of "terrorism," a successor to the Kyoto
protocols that will have a meaningful impact on climate change, and other
difficult issues. That's just not possible in today's geopolitical
environment.
Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images





