More top risks for 2009

Sun, 01/04/2009 - 10:52pm

Here are six other risks from our Top Risks report that I'll be watching closely in 2009:

1) Can Iraq remain stable as President Obama begins to draw down US troops and as Iraq militias like Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army come out of hiding to fill the vacuum? How will Obama juggle pressure from Congress to keep his promise on speedy troop withdrawals and from those at the Pentagon who urge caution? How long can Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government keep the peace without compromises among Iraq's various sects and tribes on the most pressing political problems facing the country: the status of the city of Kirkuk, demands for greater local autonomy in the southern provinces, a credible law that fairly distributes oil revenues among various groups? Worst-case scenarios -- including full-scale civil war, the break-up of the country, and broader regional turmoil -- are unlikely for 2009. But a sharp reversal of Iraq's fortunes, and unexpected tests for Barack Obama, are not.

2) What happens to Hugo Chavez if he loses the referendum in February he wants to hold on abolishing presidential term limits? If he loses this battle, might he try to steer Venezuela toward deeper authoritarianism? Chavez has badly miscalculated in the past, but this misstep could deal him a blow from which he can't recover.

3) Will Mexico's drug wars expand into a greater risk to domestic security? Might Mexican drug cartels begin to target Americans and U.S. assets in retaliation for U.S. support for domestic Mexican law enforcement? Mexico has come to be known as one of Latin America's most stable countries. An expanded conflict would put that stability to the test.

4) Can Ukraine's warring political elites cooperate long enough to pull Ukraine out of its economic and financial crisis? Will the country's internal divide between pro-Western ethnic Ukrainians and pro-Moscow ethnic Russians finally inflict lasting damage on the country's social and political unity? Ukraine's cohesion will be tested this year as never before.

5) Can Turkey's Justice and Development Party-led government survive another showdown with secularists within the country's media, business, and military elites? Will the country's EU bid suffer a substantial setback in 2009? If so, will we see a backlash within Turkey? The signs are not encouraging, because the ruling party doesn't seem to understand the scale of the challenges it faces.

6) What will the election of Jacob Zuma as South Africa's next president mean for that country's future and for South Africa's role in the region? Will Zuma adhere to a market- and foreign-investment friendly policy path? Or will the need to appease supporters among the country's communists and trade unionists reverse South African economic policy? Fears that Zuma will drive his country far to the left are exaggerated, but tackling South Africa's growing list of challenges without reliable support from the communists and trade unions is impossible.

I and my colleagues at Eurasia Group will be using this blog to dig deeper on these and many other questions that will shape international politics over the coming year. In other words, check back in with us regularly.

Ian Bremmer | Permalink | | Comments? Login or register


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My top Risks

by AllanGreen on Thu, 01/08/2009 - 7:52am

My top risks:

1) Dis-Continuity in US policy. Green president facing challenging world, with cabinet bickering. Obama lacks the credibility among this cabinet, to make the decisions. Carter years re-dux. Abandoned projects, expose country to vulnerability, unclear commitments, and ambiguous alignments. Major competitors solidify their alliance systme, and use weak moment to decrease American influence from their sphere of interests. Major realignments in Persian Gulf.

2)Afghanistan, no alternative supply routes. Major shut down of operations. Vulnerability seized on by Taliban- redux of 1900 Great Game Afghan defeat of English.

3) Turkey-Israeli alliance buckles, pressure on Egypt-Israel relations.

4) Pakistan-Waziristan instability becomes geopolitical nuisance in region, negatively impacts our new alliance system with India.

5) Major terrorist act in Western Europe (the most logical target, being France/Germany).

6) Further deterioration of Russian relations. Due to lingering status of Abkhazia and S. Osetia, but also on front with Moldavia, Baltics, and Ukrain. Has negative fall out for geopolitcs of Eurasia.

7) Iran. To bomb or not to bomb...do they have the bomb?

8) Financial Crisis - becomes Economic- becomes social- becomes political. Way beyond Obama's pay grade.

9) Somalia, and sub-Saharan Africa out of control. Require some sort of commitment.

10) Unforeseen flare-up Colombia-Venezuela, Cambodia-Thailand, host of smaller conflicts.

New Governments?

by Sound the Alarm on Sun, 01/11/2009 - 10:20am

Given the economic and financial market collapse engulfing most states around the world, (but particularly Eastern Europe), what effect do you think the global financial crisis will have on upcoming elections in 2009? It would seem as though many of these governments, especially the ones holding onto power through weak coalitions, are set to experience significant losses at the polls. We have already seen shifts in power in Lithuania, Slovenia, Romania and Austria.

It will be particularly interesting to see what happens in Ukraine. With the Party of Regions already being the most popular political force in the country, do you think they have a realistic chance at forming the next government? I can't imagine what type of platform the pro-western parties will be able to run on given the collapse of the Ukrainian economy.

About Mexico

by AllanGreen on Thu, 01/15/2009 - 9:21am

So who informed who? Ian Bremmer the DoD, or the DoD Ian Bremmer? Now Defense thinks that Mexico could collapse, on par with Pakistan.

I remember Friedman of Stratfor, years back, prophesying America would involve itself in a formal war with Pakistan - almost eccentric for a well-paid analyst.

There's always a danger with forecasting.

Personally, no, Mexico isn't anywhere near collapse, and I'll go contrarian to Bremmer, and say that Mexico's cartels wont expand their activity beyond the border (although its a naive bet)

Quotes from JOE2008 on Mexico

by AllanGreen on Thu, 01/15/2009 - 9:46am

A serious impediment to growth in Latin America
remains the power of criminal gangs and drug cartels to
corrupt, distort, and damage the region’s potential. The
fact that criminal organizations and cartels are capable of
building dozens of disposable submarines in the jungle
and then using them to smuggle cocaine, indicates the
enormous economic scale of this activity. This poses a real
threat to the national security interests of the Western
Hemisphere. In particular, the growing assault by the
drug cartels and their thugs on the Mexican government
over the past several years reminds one that an unstable
Mexico could represent a homeland security problem of
immense proportions to the United States.
[page: 34]

In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force
and indeed the world, two large and important states bear
consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and
Mexico.
Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry
with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody
civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent
extremists, and the question of what would happen to its
nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of uncertainty alone
might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces
into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no
guarantee they could gain control of the weapons and with
the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the
government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure
are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs
and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over
the next several years will have a major impact on the stability
of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos
would demand an American response based on the serious
implications for homeland security alone. [page: 36]