Just how dangerous is Mexico?

Posted By Ian Bremmer Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - 11:41 AM Share

By Allyson Benton

The drive-by murders of a U.S. consulate employee, her husband, and the Mexican husband of another employee in the Mexican border town of Ciudad Juarez this weekend have pushed Mexico's drug violence back into the American media spotlight. Even before these shootings, a spike in deadly violence linked to the Mexican government's campaign against drug cartels has provoked charges that President Felipe Calderon has started a war his government can't win.

The problem is a serious one for Mexico's security, its politics, and its people. But it's important to put this violence in perspective.

Rates of violent crime are on the rise in Mexico, but they remain lower than in the not-so-distant past -- and lower than today's violence in other Latin American countries of comparable size and wealth.

First, Mexico's murder rate has fallen sharply from a decade ago. The National Public Security System reports that in 2008, the most recent year with available data, 12 people per 100,000 were the victims of murder. In 1997, the number was 17. In the late 1980s, the murder rate hovered near 20, according to the National Statistics and Geographic Institute.

Second, drug-related murders are focused almost entirely in the northern and western states where cartel activity is concentrated. Murder rates among citizens not involved in the drug trade continue to decline.

Finally, here's a bit of regional perspective. Mexico's 2008 murder rate of 12 per 100,000 is less than half the most recent (2006) reported rates for Brazil (25). Colombia's murder rate has fallen dramatically thanks to President Alvaro Uribe's investment in security, but in 2009 the rate was still at 35. In Venezuela in 2008, the murder rate reached 58, a number that appears to be rising. Only Argentina, with 5.3 murders per 100,000 people in 2007, suffers from less deadly violence among the wealthier Latin American countries. The FBI puts the US murder rate at 5.4.

Foreign investors and business people also fear the risk of kidnapping in Mexico. Here again, the numbers put the problem in context. Kidnappings in Mexico have fallen from 1.1 per 100,000 people in 1997 to 0.8 in 2008 -- though the number may be increasing again. As for the regional comparison, though reliable data is hard to come by given that some victims choose not to report it, kidnapping rates in Venezuela have increased dramatically in recent years to an estimated 2.4 per 100,000 people. Colombia's rate has declined dramatically in recent years, from a high of 8.9 in 2000 to just 0.5 in 2009.

Violent crime, particularly involving the drug trade, is a serious problem for Mexico and the country's people. But context is crucial for issues so easily sensationalized.

Allyson Benton is a Latin America analyst at Eurasia Group.

Jesus Alcazar/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:NORTH AMERICA, DRUGS & CRIME, MEXICO
 

JWAY

4:09 PM ET

March 16, 2010

Who supports the prohibition?

The federal marijuana prohibition is like a US chemical factory sitting right on the border - it spreads its pollution all over Mexico, but while the stink continues to be blown south nobody in the US cares.

7,000 people were murdered by the Mexican drug cartels last year because we in the US kept marijuana illegal, many of the victims were children, police officers and politicians. This year the cartels are on track to kill at least 9,000 more. Who supports keeping it illegal?

 

BRET

2:56 AM ET

March 17, 2010

I wouldn't exactly say the issue is sensationalized

Sure, the murder rate in Mexico has decreased significantly within the past 20 years, but are all murders related to drug cartels?

In fact, according to a Stratfor report in December of 2009, there have been around 6,900-7,300 deaths related to the drug cartels in 2009. In 2008, there were approximately only 5,300. That's more than 1,500 deaths, and 2,100 of these deaths occurred in Cuidad Juarez. True, most of the violence occurs in the northern part of Mexico because that is where smuggling routes and gang "turf" is disputed, but nevertheless, in my opinion, the increase in deaths related to drug cartel violence shows that the situation is worsening.

I also believe that it's important to examine more than the numbers, specifically the change in strategy that some of these cartels have pursued. For example, Los Zetas have drastically increased their influence. In 2008, the world witnessed Los Zetas turn from acting as an enforcer arm of the Gulf Cartel to conducting their own drug shipment operations. As a result, the influence of Los Zetas has increased, and the cartel is becoming stronger, expanding their operations into Guatemala. The Gulf Cartel wasn't going to let Los Zetas steal its turf, so we are currently seeing these two groups go at it. The idea of Los Zetas gaining influence is very frightening. This is because Los Zetas is by far the most organized and complex cartel, and have former Mexican Special Forces and Guatemalan Special Forces (very tough guys) training the footsoldiers. Imagine if Los Zetas decided to expand its operations in either Texas or California with its elite "Kaibiles" leading the operation...

 

MEGAS

4:19 AM ET

March 17, 2010

regional perspective

violent crime is a serious problem in Argentina, were I live, as well. I also agree with the author this is a subject very prone to being sensationalized. moreover, knowing the murder rate in Argentina is 5.3 over 100,000 (even below US standards) makes me realize even more how the mass media sensationalizes this subject. I still believe I live in a dangerous conuntry. though, through a regional perspective, it appears to be much more safe than others, at least in the murder statistics. hugo chavez's Venezuela seems no-man's-land compared to Argentina.

 

LURKER

4:13 PM ET

March 19, 2010

Poorly Done Research

From the author: "Only Argentina, with 5.3 murders per 100,000 people in 2007, suffers from less deadly violence among the wealthier Latin American countries."

Wait, don't Chile and Uruguay count as wealthier LatAm countries?

Both of them have lower murder rates than Argentina or the U.S., with Chile's around 1/3 of the U.S. rate.

WTH?

 

AGD09C

3:04 PM ET

April 2, 2010

Please Mrs. Secretary H. Clinton:

I am a mexican citizen who would like very much that in my country we could have the liberty and possibility to express ourselves, freely and in an uncensored way, by means of comments published on line in the same page of any published news by the main news publishers in our country.

This freedom is being wthdrawed fastly. I have made some comments that have been retired or not published in the newspapers , in their online versions.

I suspect that a comment by you, directed to our president, could make a difference. Of course, our senate, representatives, and politicians in general doesn't listen or help promote iniciatives from the people not at hte highest level of our society.

Thank you very much to you and to the american people for the support to liberty that you have kindly showed for decades,

An Mexican

 

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