Posted By Ian Bremmer Share

By Christopher Garman

Over the past decade, Brazil has undergone a quiet socioeconomic revolution. From 2003 to 2009 nearly 30 million Brazilians entered the middle class, which now accounts for more than half of the population. These new entrants are now clamoring for improved quality of life, not just access to steady jobs and wages. The change in aspirations is remaking Brazilian politics, a process which can be seen in President Dilma Rousseff's recent overhaul of the Ministry of Transportation following allegations of corruption.

Rousseff's comprehensive housecleaning of the Transportation Ministry followed the early July publication of corruption allegations in the weekly newsmagazine Veja. It sent a strong signal to congressional allies that she wants to improve government efficiency and will be less tolerant of corruption. Rousseff dismissed 18 people, most of them political appointees, including ex-transportation minister Alfredo Nascimento, from the Party of the Republic, or PR (an ally in the lower house), and senior ministry officials from the ruling Workers' Party. The president also announced other ministries could follow and signaled that no political appointees would be spared if corruption were found.

Rousseff's stance could be explained by her own technocratic profile. She is pragmatic and wants results, particularly in the run-up to the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympics. The cost of turning a blind eye to corruption among those running agencies and ministries is growing. But the rise of the middle class is a more important structural factor.

As recently as 2005, jobs and wages were the top demands of voters. But greater economic prosperity has brought greater aspirations. The new middle class unsurprisingly wants better health care, better education for their kids, and better neighborhoods to live in. Polling conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, for example, demonstrates a significant increase in concern over these three issues from 2005 through 2010 and a proportionate drop in concern over wages and income. According to Ipsos Public Affairs, quality-of-life issues were ranked as primary concerns by roughly a quarter of middle class voters in 2005, while economic issues were the primary concern of close to 50 percent. But by 2010 middle-class concern with economic issues had fallen to 36 percent, behind quality-of-life issues, which rose to 38 percent. These demands will shape the types of candidates that will be successful in future elections and act as powerful incentives for elected officials.

Two conclusions emerge from this appraisal. First, Rousseff is unlikely to back down. While Rousseff may be forced to make strategic concessions to congressional allies on occasion (don't expect the president to quickly conduct similar overhauls in other ministries), the focus on better governance is here to stay.

Second, Rousseff's relations with congress will likely become more difficult. Voter demands may change quickly, but the intricacies of Brazil's political system (specifically coalition management in a multiparty presidential system) will evolve more slowly. For example, Rousseff's decision to strip the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) of key ministries early in her term contributed to her difficulties during the scandal implicating her chief of staff. If her public-approval ratings decline, the PMDB and the PR may be inclined to show their displeasure with open dissent -- likely with support of populist spending measures. And in a context in which the government is struggling to keep inflation at bay, more spending by congress is that last thing Rousseff needs.

Christopher Garman is Eurasia Group's Latin America practice head.

VANDERLEI ALMEIDA/AFP/Getty Images

 

YELLOW VAGINAL DISCHARGE

1:11 PM ET

August 1, 2011

RE:Brazil's middle class remakes the political landscape

You can feel the socioeconomic revolution in every corner when visiting Brazil
[link=http://folliculitisonline.com/]folliculitis[/link]

 

YELLOW VAGINAL DISCHARGE

1:13 PM ET

August 1, 2011

RE:Brazil's middle class remakes the political landscape

RE:Brazil's middle class remakes the political landscape

You can feel the socioeconomic revolution in every corner when visiting Brazil
Folliculitis

 

SUSAN JACKON

9:27 AM ET

August 2, 2011

That's not a good thing, if

That's not a good thing, if socioeconomic revolution in every corner, how the country keep developing?

http://www.herveleger.me.uk/

 

DAVIDDROGBA

11:38 AM ET

August 9, 2011

it cant develops, that's the

it cant develops, that's the problem
calories in cantaloupe

 

EFREN PROPPER

9:46 AM ET

August 19, 2011

Brazil's middle class remakes the political landscape

The question of what kind of city we want cannot be divorced from that of what kind of social ties, relationship to nature, lifestyles, technologies and aesthetic values we desire. The right to the city is far more than the individual liberty to access urban resources: it is a right to change ourselves by changing the city. It is, moreover, a common rather than an individual right since this transformation inevitably depends upon the exercise of a collective power to reshape the processes of urbanization. The freedom to make and remake our cities and ourselves is, I want to argue, one of the most precious riley steele yet most neglected of our human rights. From their inception, cities have arisen through geographical and social concentrations of a surplus product. Urbanization has always been, therefore, a class phenomenon, since surpluses are extracted from somewhere and from somebody, while the control over their disbursement typically lies in a few hands. This general situation persists under capitalism, of course; but since urbanization depends on the mobilization of a surplus product, an intimate connection emerges between the development of capitalism and urbanization. Capitalists have to produce a surplus product in order to produce surplus value; this in turn must be reinvested in order to generate more surplus value. The result of continued reinvestment is the expansion of surplus production at a compound rate—hence the logistic curves (money, output and population) attached to the history of capital accumulation, paralleled by the growth path of urbanization under capitalism.The perpetual need to find profitable terrains for capital-surplus production and absorption shapes the politics of capitalism. It also presents the capitalist with a number of barriers to continuous and trouble-free expansion. If labour is scarce and wages are high, either existing labour has to be disciplined—technologically induced unemployment or an assault on organized working-class power are two prime methods—or fresh labour forces must be found by immigration, export of capital or proletarianization of hitherto independent elements of the population. Capitalists must also discover new means of production in general and natural resources in particular, which puts increasing pressure on the natural environment to yield up necessary raw materials and absorb the inevitable waste. They need to open up terrains for raw-material extraction—often the objective of imperialist and neo-colonial endeavours.

 

AXELBROOK

10:38 AM ET

August 19, 2011

NO, its part of the American

NO, its part of the American way. I criticize Bush too. RIO DO you feel shame for your blatant attempt to stifle our Democratic right to have a political opinion..

 

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