Is Algeria next?

Posted By Ian Bremmer Tuesday, November 22, 2011 - 11:14 AM Share

By James Fallon

As protests in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya captured international attention, riots swept Algeria earlier this year. But as unrest elsewhere reached a crescendo, the turmoil in Algeria went quiet. Since then, Algeria has escaped the world's attention, but long-term damage has been done. Local anger at its government is high, and President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's reform program -- aimed at improving political representation and official transparency -- is unlikely to change that. Without a surge of fundamental political reform, Algeria could quickly become unstable, and the concentration of resources in a few hands, the resulting corruption, and weak governing institutions make successful reform highly unlikely. The regime is not on the verge, but widespread social unrest, regime infighting, and a looming presidential transition will only add to the risk of political instability over the next three years.

Algeria's oil and gas exports leave its government flush with cash. In fact, the country's central bank governor noted in September that foreign currency reserves had topped $170 billion. The Algerian government avoided the fate of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt in part by using some of this cash on subsidies -- to reduce consumer prices and raise public sector salaries, for example.

But money alone can't buy good governance. The state continues to provide Algerians with lousy social services and all that wealth isn't creating nearly enough jobs. Rampant corruption at the highest levels and a near total lack of accountability exacerbate public anger. Events like major electricity outages and the exposure of corrupt public housing programs continue to spark unrest. Labor activism is on the rise.

Even as the regime's popular legitimacy erodes, its ageing leaders resist making plans for what will come next. Infighting between civilian and military power centers triggers dueling corruption investigations and abrupt leadership changes at key ministries and state-owned companies like oil and gas giant Sonatrach. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika is still widely credited as the man who brought a decade-long civil war to a close, but age is catching up with him, and he's been ill for years. His term isn't set to expire until 2014, but his sudden death or incapacitation would leave the transition in the hands of senior military leaders, some of whom carry the taint of atrocities committed during the fighting. An internal power struggle among civilian and military leaders -- or within the armed forces itself -- might well spill into the open and provoke a broader conflict. Even in the best-case scenario -- Bouteflika serves out his term and a managed transition begins in 2014-there is little reason for optimism that serious unrest can be avoided.

But the tipping point into violence could come much sooner. Legislative elections are scheduled for 2012. With expectations raised by the sweeping changes across North Africa and the Middle East this year, this could be all Algeria needs for a true test of the regime's willingness to tolerate dissent -- and of the people's tolerance for more of the same.

James Fallon is an associate with Eurasia Group's Middle East practice.

FAROUK BATICHE/AFP/Getty Images

EXPLORE:AFRICA, ARAB WORLD, AXIS OF UPHEAVAL, DEMOCRACY
 

HAKIM TALBI

4:48 AM ET

November 23, 2011

The Revolution will be in the Algerian desert.....

The Revolution will be in the Algerian desert where the people of the Algerian desert have enough of watching their underground fortunes consisting of oil, gas and gold being stolen by the majority white Algerians from the North in the name of nationalism. Even oil jobs are given to people who are not from the desert and don't even speak their language or dialect. I started a dialogue about this subject in facebook called "Apartheid Algiers" to explain the situation of people of Southern Algeria and their stolen rights.

Algiers is giving nothing back to the South.

Lt. Hakim Talbi,
New York

 

DAVIDDROGBA

8:13 AM ET

November 23, 2011

i hope The Revolution will

i hope The Revolution will start soon in the Algerian desert
Employment Application

 

HAKIM TALBI

5:08 PM ET

November 23, 2011

How many Billions of Dollars are invested in Algiers and how man

Who owns the Algerian oil?
Where is Algerian oil coming from? Of course not from Algiers.
Is the Algerian oil coming from Algiers? NO
Are the billions of oil revenues invested in the Algerian desert? NO.
Why billions are invested in Algiers while other cities are neglected and ignored?
Why oil jobs are given to no local Desert, Saharawi, Touareg and Black people?
Why oil and gas jobs are given to no Saharawi people?
How many billions of dollars are invested in Algiers and how many millions of Dinars are invested in all the Algerian desert?
Is the Algerian desert colonized by white North Africans? Looks like YES.
In the name of what billions of oil dollars are used to build Algiers?
Are white Algerians ripping off Black Algerians? Naturally of course.
What are the rights of Black Algerians?
What are “white Algerians” giving back to “Black Algerians”? Baklawa, kabelouze and flags
Who gave Bouteflika the authorization to put more than 170 Billions dollars of oil revenues in Foreign banks while Algeria is still considered as third world country?
How many Billions of Dollars are invested in Algiers and how many millions of Dinars are invested in all the Algerian desert?
Why the state of Ourgla is one of the poorest states in Algerian while its undergrounds are one of the most richest in the world.
The way Algerian oil and gas wealth is distributed between Algerians puts in question all the Algerian nationalism.
What is Algiers giving back to the people of the Algerian desert? Flags!!!
What is the normal and abnormal in exchange between northern and Southern Algeria?
Southern Algeria is giving billions of dollars to Northern Algeria but in exchange Northern Algeria is giving a lot of bullshit to Southern Algeria.
The time of Bullshit is over.

Is the Algerian oil really Algerian?
Is Algerian oil Algérois?

 

HAKIM TALBI

5:13 PM ET

November 23, 2011

Apartheid Algiers

The People of Algerian Desert,
the People of Algerian Sahara,
the Touareg People
and the People of the State of Ourgla

have all the rights to ask the United Nations to freeze all Algerian billions of dollars (more than 170 billions dollars) hidden in international banks.
All these Petro wealth are taken from their lands and invested elsewhere but the Algerian Desert.
In the name of Algerian Nationalism all these wealth from Oil, Gas and Gold is taken from them and NOTHING is giving back to them.
Even oil and natural gas jobs are taken away from them.
For most Algerian this is normal practice but for me this is North African Apartheid and Colonialism.

Here an example, a simple Google Image search of “SONATRACH ALGERIA” is going to give you the true reality. All the people you see in the images are white.
All the jobs are giving to no Desert Saharawi people.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&client=safari&rls=en&q=sonatrach%20algeria&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=28808l36698l0l37024l19l17l1l0l0l0l283l2347l4.10.2l16l0&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1635&bih=1011&sei=617GTpT3FcHo0QGRy8El

A Google Image search of “SONATRACH Algérie” also is going to give a similar result of the Apartheid Algiers.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&client=safari&rls=en&q=Algérie%20SONATRACH&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=8140l12046l0l12412l11l10l0l0l0l0l353l1533l2.5.1.1l9l0&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&biw=1635&bih=1011&sei=RmDGToXaGMj50gGBvuQJ

But the worse comes when you search SONATRACH in Youtube.

Even schools creating jobs for SONATRACH and SONELGAZ are not in the Algerian desert.
This shows us that in Algeria we have different class of citizens.
Correct me if I’m wrong.

The United Nation must open an investigation onto “Aparteid Algiers” who are taking the legal, natural and normal rights of the Algerian desert indigenous peoples.

We need start an international dialogue to end "Apartheid Algiers".

 

MCELROYSUSIE

10:20 PM ET

December 17, 2011

riot is everywhere

riot is everywhere ....discontent to the government.Many people suffer from this but they willing to do it just to to let the government know there feelings. hope this will end very soon. find a christian flatshare

 

The Call, from Ian Bremmer, uses cutting-edge political science to predict the political future -- and how it will shape the global economy.

Read More